Stocks rise with oil, cyber attack; weak data knocks dollar

Posted May 16, 2017

Goldman Sachs analysts say the Russia-Saudi announcement bodes well for agreement from OPEC, "consistent with OPEC's desire to achieve both price stability and backwardation, which will help to slow the recovery in shale oil production by curtailing the market's ability to grow future production through forward sales".

A barrel of Brent Crude jumped to $52.52 following a meeting in China between the two countries.

Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation are the world's top two oil producers.

But with US oil output rising and the first phase of the OPEC/non-OPEC agreement proving a disappointment there may be greater caution this time.

Asian markets were mixed in Tuesday trade, following the bounce in oil prices after the energy ministers of Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia announced output cuts should be extended till March 2018 and as investors largely shrugged off USA political news on President Donald Trump.

"We've come to the conclusion that the agreement needs to be extended".

The two countries produce 20 million barrels of crude oil a day - about one-fifth of global consumption - and other oil-producing nations are expected to follow their lead over cuts.

A central part of their problem is the U.S. shale oil business and the competition to the established industry it has come to represent in the past decade.

The ministers said they hoped other producers would join the supply cut, which would initially be on the same volume terms as before.

The U.S. shale oil producers don't need $60 oil to make money.

The cut hasn't really worked.

Natural gas and NGL prices are much higher than they were a year ago. Very few cartel member countries can survive another extended period of low oil prices.

The U.S. operators have built up a new inventory of drilled uncompleted wells (DUCs) as the rig count recovery has been outpacing completion growth since the second half of 2016. Kazakhstan, however, said it could not join a prolonged reduction on the same terms."When the two biggest oil producers of the world reach a consensus on the extension of a supply cut, the market will listen", Tamas Varga, of oil broker PVM, said in a report.Ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC countries meet to decide policy on May 25 in Vienna. The Canadian dollar hit its highest level in over two weeks against its USA counterpart on Monday as oil rose and weaker dollar boosted commodity related Canadian dollar. A recent increase in Libyan output, together with a surge in North American shale production and signs of recovery in Nigeria, may undercut OPEC's strategy to re-balance the market and prop up prices.

In recent years Saudi Arabia has been in a pitched battle with the USA to try to reduce the price of oil.

"We do not know the extent of damage or information that was captured in the attack; it's likely we'll hear more details about it today but initial reports suggest it was caught relatively early and limited to older computers", said James Woods, global investment analyst at Rivkin.

However, last year Saudi officials agreed to the first cut in production for eight years.